Forest Carbon Project Exposure to Wildfire: Global Patterns and Evolving Risk under Climate Change, CASE project with BeZero Carbon Limited

Forest Carbon Project Exposure to Wildfire: Global Patterns and Evolving Risk under Climate Change, CASE project with BeZero Carbon Limited

Project Description

Supervisors

Professor Naomi Vaughan, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia

Dr Matthew Jones, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia

Dr Niels Andela, BeZero Carbon Ltd

 

Scientific Background

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is used in all future emission scenarios to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and is relied upon in most national climate policies to achieve net zero by 2050. CDR is used at net zero to offset emissions from difficult-to-decarbonise sectors such as aviation, agriculture and heavy industry. Any temporary overshoot of a specific global temperature target, this century, can only be achieved through global net negative emissions, where CDR removes more CO2 from the atmosphere than all human activity is emitting.  Today, CDR removes 2.2 GtCO2 each year, but in more sustainable future scenarios this rises to 8 GtCO2 a year by 2050.

Most carbon projects focus on forest expansion via afforestation and reforestation, and most national climate plans rely on more forest projects in coming decades. However, their effectiveness is constrained by several challenges, including land availability (competition with food production, biodiversity), ensuring additionality, loss to disturbance (e.g., human, windstorms, pests and disease). Forest carbon projects use buffer pools (i.e. an extra 10-20% area) as an insurance against losses.  A critical, yet vastly under-studied, limitation lies in forest carbon project exposure to current and future wildfires.

Wildfire disturbance poses a significant threat to the permanence and long-term carbon sequestration potential of forest-based carbon projects. Despite this, very little is known about current or future potential of wildfires to cause disturbance in forest-based carbon projects. This knowledge gap is exacerbated by the lack of comprehensive global datasets mapping the location and boundaries of existing, planned, and potential carbon projects. This project is a critical step towards closing the knowledge gap.

 

Research Methodology

  1. Compile a comprehensive global database of ongoing and planned carbon project boundaries. This will build on the dataset of ~3,000 global projects already compiled by CASE partner, BeZero Carbon Ltd.
  2. Evaluate the effects of wildfire on carbon projects since 2000 using observations from the Global Fire Atlas.
  3. Evaluate the net benefit of carbon projects over their commitment periods by accounting for ecosystem recovery after fire.
  4. Use projections of future fire extent to predict the future change in the exposure of carbon projects to fire at future global warming levels of 1.5 – 4.0 °C.
  5. Use the results to from (3) to form prototype estimates of the buffer pool sizes required to insure against future fire risk in carbon projects, tailored to regions.

 

Training

As part of an interdisciplinary, cohesive and successful research team you will receive training in geospatial analysis, programming, and science communication. You will also gain sought-after skills in the analysis and interpretation of large datasets using statistical and machine learning techniques, including in industry-leading approaches and products. This PhD provides an exciting opportunity to work closely with experts in wildfires and climate change mitigation. The skills you will develop during this PhD are highly valued by policy and industry employers and across research disciplines.

 

Person Specification

We are looking for an enthusiastic individual with a degree in a quantitative discipline. Experience of geospatial analysis (with GIS) is essential and programming with code (e.g. R, Python) would be advantageous.

Acceptable first degree subjects: A degree in numerate, computational, or environmental subject areas. Numerate Subject Areas include e.g.: Mathematics, Statistics, Physics, Economics, Finance, Engineering (Mechanical, Electrical, Civil, etc.)

Project code: VAUGHAN_UEA_ARIES26_CASE

All ARIES CASE studentships include a three to 18-month placement with the non-academic CASE partner during their period of study. The placement offers experience designed to enhance professional development.

References

  • Smith, S. M., Geden, O., Gidden, M. J., Lamb, W. F., Nemet, G. F., Minx, J. C., Buck, H., Burke, J., Cox, E., Edwards, M. R., Fuss, S., Johnstone, I., Müller-Hansen, F., Pongratz, J., Probst, B. S., Roe, S., Schenuit, F., Schulte, I., Vaughan, N. E. (eds.) (2024) The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal 2024 - 2nd Edition. https://doi/org/10.17605/OSF.IO/F85QJ
  • Smith, H.B., Vaughan, N.E. & Forster, J. (2022). Long-term national climate strategies bet on forests and soils to reach net-zero. Commun Earth Environ 3:305 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00636-x
  • Jones, M. W., Veraverbeke, S., Andela, N., Doerr, S. H., Kolden, C., Mataveli, G., ... & Abatzoglou, J. T. (2024). Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics. Science 386:eadl5889 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adl5889.
  • Jones, M. W., Kelley, D. I., Burton, C. A., Di Giuseppe, F., Barbosa, M. L. F., Brambleby, E., ... & Xanthopoulos, G. (2024). State of wildfires 2023–2024. Earth System Science Data 16:3601 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024.
  • Andela, N., Morton, D. C., Giglio, L., Paugam, R., Chen, Y., Hantson, S., ... & Randerson, J. T. (2019) The Global Fire Atlas of individual fire size, duration, speed and direction. Earth System Science Data 11: 529 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019.

Key Information

  • This studentship has been shortlisted for funding under the UKRI NERC DLA funding scheme and will commence on 1 October 2026. The closing date for applications is 23:59 on 7 January 2026.
  • Successful candidates who meet UKRI’s eligibility criteria will be awarded a fully-funded studentship, which covers fees, maintenance stipend (£20,780 p.a. for 2025/26) and a research training and support grant (RTSG). A limited number of studentships are available for international applicants, with the difference between 'home' and 'international' fees being waived by the registering university. Please note, however, that ARIES funding does not cover additional costs associated with relocation to, and living in, the UK, such as visa costs or the health surcharge.
  • ARIES postgraduate researchers (PGRs) benefit from bespoke training and ARIES provides £2,500 to every student for access to external training, travel and conferences, on top of all Research Costs associated with the project. Excellent applicants from quantitative disciplines with limited experience in environmental sciences may be considered for an additional 3-month stipend to take advanced-level courses. Excellent applicants from quantitative disciplines with limited experience in environmental sciences may be considered for an additional 3-month stipend to take advanced-level courses.
  • ARIES is committed to equality, diversity, widening participation and inclusion in all areas of its operation. We encourage enquiries and applications from all sections of the community regardless of gender, ethnicity, disability, age, sexual orientation and transgender status. Academic qualifications are considered alongside non-academic experience, and our recruitment process considers potential with the same weighting as past experience.
  • All ARIES studentships may be undertaken on a part-time or full-time basis. International applicants should check whether there are any conditions of visa or immigration permission that preclude part-time study. All advertised project proposals have been developed with consideration of a safe, inclusive and appropriate research and fieldwork environment with respect to protected characteristics. If you have any concerns, please contact us.
  • For further information, please contact the supervisor. To apply for this Studentship, follow the instructions at the bottom of the page or click the 'apply now' link.
  • ARIES is required by our funders to collect Equality and Diversity Information from all of our applicants. The information you provide will be used solely for monitoring and statistical purposes; it will remain confidential and will be stored on the UEA SharePoint server. Data will not be shared with those involved in making decisions on the award of Studentships and will have no influence on the success of your application. It will only be shared outside of this group in an anonymised and aggregated form. You will be asked to complete the form by the University to which you apply.
  • ARIES studentships are subject to UKRI terms and conditions. Postgraduate Researchers are expected to live within reasonable distance of their host organisation for the duration of their studentship. Please see https://www.ukri.org/publications/terms-and-conditions-for-training-funding/ for more information.

Apply Now

Apply now via the  University of East Anglia Application Portal