Smoke Signals: Predicting the health burden of wildfires across the UK and Europe

Smoke Signals: Predicting the health burden of wildfires across the UK and Europe

Project Description

Supervisors

Professor Iain Lake, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia

Dr Matthew Jones, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia

Professor Andrew Wilson, Norwich Medical School, University of East Anglia

 

Scientific Background

The 2025 wildfire season had destructive effects across Europe. Over 10,000 km2 burnt, an area equivalent in size to Cyprus. Wildfires produce hazardous smoke that can travel hundreds of km  influencing air quality over large areas. Of particular concern is fine particulate matter (PM2.5), which penetrates deep into the lungs and enters the bloodstream, leading to asthma, lung disease, heart conditions, strokes, and pregnancy/birth complications. Some countries have studied these health impacts extensively, but this is not the case in Europe (1,2). European healthcare systems remain largely unaware and underprepared for the growing threat of wildfire smoke exposure. This project will provide vital new insights into the health effects of wildfire smoke in Europe and by generating evidence-based public health guidance and developing early warning interventions (3), this project will help society adapt to the increasing threat of wildfire smoke.

 

Research Methodology

We will use data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to isolate the contribution of fire to air pollution (PM25) levels across Europe. Two model experiments one with fires, one without will assess the fire specific contribution to PM25 beyond background sources. Using machine learning, we will derive dose-response curves for ill health and death associated with exposures to fire-related PM25. Analysis will be stratified by factors such as age, sex and occupation. Finally, you will incorporate results into the State of Wildfires report authored by members of the research team (4).

 

Training

This PhD provides an exciting opportunity to work with an interdisciplinary team of experts in wildfires and health from  2 UEA schools, North Carolina State University and the ECMWF. Training will be provided in the extraction of health and climate data from official sources alongside statistical and machine learning techniques to generate smoke-health dose-response curves. Broadly you will gain sought after skills in the analysis and interpretation of large datasets using statistical and machine learning techniques. The skills you will develop are highly valued by employers.

 

Person Specification

An enthusiastic individual with a quantitative degree. Experience of Environmental Modelling or Public Health would be advantageous but not essential.

Acceptable first degree subjects: A degree or equivalent in numerate, computational, or environmental subject areas.

Project code: LAKE_UEA_ARIES26

References

  • Casajus Valles, A., Marín Ferrer, M., Poljanšek, K. and Clark, I., Science for disaster risk management 2020 – Acting today, protecting tomorrow, Casajus Valles, A.(editor), Marín Ferrer, M.(editor), Poljanšek, K.(editor) and Clark, I.(editor), Publications Office of the European Union, 2021.
  • UKHSA (2023). Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK; State of the Evidence 2023. London, UK Health Security Agency.
  • Lake IR, Barker GC. Climate Change, Foodborne Pathogens and Illness in Higher-Income Countries. Current Environmental Health Reports. 2018;5(1):187-96.
  • Jones MW, Kelley DI, Burton CA, Di Giuseppe F, Barbosa MLF, Brambleby E, et al. State of Wildfires 2023–2024. Earth Syst Sci Data. 2024;16(8):3601-85.
  • Fay H. Johnston, Grant Williamson, Nicolas Borchers-Arriagada, Sarah B. Henderson and David M.J.S. Bowman (2024) Climate Change, Landscape Fires, and Human Health: A Global Perspective, 45.

Key Information

  • This studentship has been shortlisted for funding under the UKRI NERC DLA funding scheme and will commence on 1 October 2026. The closing date for applications is 23:59 on 7 January 2026.
  • Successful candidates who meet UKRI’s eligibility criteria will be awarded a fully-funded studentship, which covers fees, maintenance stipend (£20,780 p.a. for 2025/26) and a research training and support grant (RTSG). A limited number of studentships are available for international applicants, with the difference between 'home' and 'international' fees being waived by the registering university. Please note, however, that ARIES funding does not cover additional costs associated with relocation to, and living in, the UK, such as visa costs or the health surcharge.
  • ARIES postgraduate researchers (PGRs) benefit from bespoke training and ARIES provides £2,500 to every student for access to external training, travel and conferences, on top of all Research Costs associated with the project. Excellent applicants from quantitative disciplines with limited experience in environmental sciences may be considered for an additional 3-month stipend to take advanced-level courses. Excellent applicants from quantitative disciplines with limited experience in environmental sciences may be considered for an additional 3-month stipend to take advanced-level courses.
  • ARIES is committed to equality, diversity, widening participation and inclusion in all areas of its operation. We encourage enquiries and applications from all sections of the community regardless of gender, ethnicity, disability, age, sexual orientation and transgender status. Academic qualifications are considered alongside non-academic experience, and our recruitment process considers potential with the same weighting as past experience.
  • All ARIES studentships may be undertaken on a part-time or full-time basis. International applicants should check whether there are any conditions of visa or immigration permission that preclude part-time study. All advertised project proposals have been developed with consideration of a safe, inclusive and appropriate research and fieldwork environment with respect to protected characteristics. If you have any concerns, please contact us.
  • For further information, please contact the supervisor. To apply for this Studentship, follow the instructions at the bottom of the page or click the 'apply now' link.
  • ARIES is required by our funders to collect Equality and Diversity Information from all of our applicants. The information you provide will be used solely for monitoring and statistical purposes; it will remain confidential and will be stored on the UEA SharePoint server. Data will not be shared with those involved in making decisions on the award of Studentships and will have no influence on the success of your application. It will only be shared outside of this group in an anonymised and aggregated form. You will be asked to complete the form by the University to which you apply.
  • ARIES studentships are subject to UKRI terms and conditions. Postgraduate Researchers are expected to live within reasonable distance of their host organisation for the duration of their studentship. Please see https://www.ukri.org/publications/terms-and-conditions-for-training-funding/ for more information.

Apply Now

Apply now via the  University of East Anglia Application Portal